← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

5 Rounds

Demian Maia won · SUB R3

Elo1402

Elo1377

Demian MaiavsBen AskrenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · Saturday, October 26, 2019Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Demian Maia won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:54

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsBen Askren: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Demian Maia wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demian Maia at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Demian Maia has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Demian Maia has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia

Red Corner

Ben Askren

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1402

Elo

1377

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · May 18

SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21

latest

Ben Askren

oldest →

SUBvs Robbie Lawler · Mar 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricBen Askren

1.80

Strikes / min

3.64

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

5.66

63%

Strike defense

36%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

4.33

61%

Takedown defense

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap-2.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demian MaiaBen Askren

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demian Maia(10 fights)Ben Askren(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +25.1|Blue -25.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetBen Askren

By target zone

50% acc · 64%

Head

47% acc · 86%

74% acc · 36%

Body

67% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

49% acc · 71%

Distance

43% acc · 73%

85% acc · 25%

Clinch

85% acc · 17%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demian Maia rounds

even

Ben Askren rounds

Round 1Ben Askren edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:38

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:51

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 122

Sig Strikes

63 / 127

59.3%

Sig Str %

49.7%

84 / 137

Total Strikes

102 / 168

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 7

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:29

Ctrl Time

1:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ben Askren	27 / 45	44 / 62	1 / 2	0
1	Demian Maia	28 / 54	31 / 57	0 / 0	0
2	Ben Askren	22 / 53	31 / 62	1 / 1	0
2	Demian Maia	23 / 44	31 / 52	0 / 0	0
3	Ben Askren	14 / 29	27 / 44	2 / 4	0
3	Demian Maia	18 / 24	22 / 28	0 / 0	1

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26

Ben Askren

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3