← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Belal Muhammad won · U-DEC R3

Elo1402

Elo1479

Demian MaiavsBelal MuhammadUFC Prediction Result

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Saturday, June 12, 2021Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Belal Muhammad won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsBelal Muhammad: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Belal Muhammad wins(78.2%)

Actual result: Belal Muhammad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Belal Muhammad at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia

Red Corner

Belal Muhammad

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1402

Elo

1479

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian Maia

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · May 18

SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20

latest

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricBelal Muhammad

1.80

Strikes / min

4.43

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

63%

Strike defense

55%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

2.14

61%

Takedown defense

90%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demian MaiaBelal Muhammad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demian Maia(10 fights)Belal Muhammad(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -76.8|Blue +76.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +336.0|Blue -336.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetBelal Muhammad

By target zone

40% acc · 100%

Head

32% acc · 84%

Body

75% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

38% acc · 95%

Distance

35% acc · 96%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demian Maia rounds

even

Belal Muhammad rounds

Round 1Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control2:30

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:46

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:58

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 53

Sig Strikes

45 / 127

39%

Sig Str %

32.7%

23 / 55

Total Strikes

92 / 177

1 / 21

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Belal Muhammad	5 / 21	10 / 27	0 / 0
1	Demian Maia	2 / 5	4 / 7	1 / 11
2	Belal Muhammad	19 / 47	34 / 63	0 / 0
2	Demian Maia	7 / 19	7 / 19	0 / 4
3	Belal Muhammad	21 / 59	48 / 87	0 / 0
3	Demian Maia	12 / 29	12 / 29	0 / 6

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21