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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Demian Maia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1402

Elo1391

Demian MaiavsAlexander YakovlevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Demian Maia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Demian Maia wins(76.5%)

Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demian Maia at -455 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Demian Maia

Red Corner

Alexander Yakovlev

Blue Corner

-455

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+405

(20%)

1402

Elo

1391

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demian MaiaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21

latest

Alexander YakovlevL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 16

SUBvs Zak Cummings · Nov 16

SUBvs Alex Da Silva · Apr 19

vs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 19

SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demian MaiaMetricAlexander Yakovlev

1.80

Strikes / min

1.74

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

2.41

63%

Strike defense

58%

2.49

TDs / 15 min

1.66

61%

Takedown defense

72%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demian MaiaAlexander Yakovlev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demian Maia(10 fights)Alexander Yakovlev(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.8|Blue -11.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demian MaiaTargetAlexander Yakovlev

By target zone

39% acc · 93%

Head

40% acc · 36%

100% acc · 7%

Body

33% acc · 5%

0% acc

Leg

65% acc · 59%

By position

12% acc · 14%

Distance

51% acc · 91%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

64% acc · 86%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demian Maia rounds

even

Alexander Yakovlev rounds

Round 1Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control2:46

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:29

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 3Alexander Yakovlev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:54

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 73

Sig Strikes

22 / 43

37.7%

Sig Str %

36.7%

83 / 128

Total Strikes

24 / 45

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 2

66.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

8:09

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Yakovlev	0 / 6	0 / 6	0 / 0
1	Demian Maia	17 / 40	35 / 59	0 / 1
2	Alexander Yakovlev	5 / 11	7 / 13	0 / 1
2	Demian Maia	5 / 14	18 / 27	1 / 1
3	Alexander Yakovlev	17 / 26	17 / 26	1 / 1
3	Demian Maia	7 / 19	30 / 42	1 / 1

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26

Alexander Yakovlev

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9