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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Demetrious Johnson won · SUB R3

Elo1491

Demetrious JohnsonvsWilson ReisUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · Saturday, April 15, 2017Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Demetrious Johnson won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:49

Style matchupDemetrious Johnson: WrestlervsWilson Reis: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Demetrious Johnson wins(76.3%)

Actual result: Demetrious Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demetrious Johnson at -1100 American odds

+$9 profit

$109 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Demetrious Johnson has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Demetrious Johnson has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Wilson Reis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demetrious Johnson

Red Corner

Wilson Reis

Blue Corner

-1100

(92%)

Vegas Odds

+700

(13%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'3"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demetrious Johnson

oldest →

vs John Dodson · Sep 15

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16

vs Tim Elliott · Dec 16

SUBvs Ray Borg · Oct 17

vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18

latest

Wilson Reis

oldest →

DECvs Ulka Sasaki · Feb 17

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Sep 17

vs John Moraga · Apr 18

vs Ben Nguyen · Dec 18

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demetrious JohnsonMetricWilson Reis

3.43

Strikes / min

1.83

1.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

67%

Strike defense

55%

3.35

TDs / 15 min

5.15

65%

Takedown defense

47%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77Δ 2.98 — meaningful gap-1.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demetrious JohnsonWilson Reis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)Wilson Reis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demetrious JohnsonTargetWilson Reis

By target zone

53% acc · 75%

Head

1% acc · 13%

80% acc · 15%

Body

14% acc · 13%

92% acc · 10%

Leg

80% acc · 75%

By position

53% acc · 67%

Distance

10% acc · 100%

50% acc · 7%

Clinch

0% acc

82% acc · 26%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demetrious Johnson rounds

even

Wilson Reis rounds

Round 1Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:01

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:23

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control1:54

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

108 / 186

Sig Strikes

16 / 168

57%

Sig Str %

9.7%

135 / 216

Total Strikes

18 / 170

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 6

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:18

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Wilson Reis	4 / 55	5 / 56	0 / 2	0
1	Demetrious Johnson	25 / 56	25 / 56	0 / 0	0
2	Wilson Reis	6 / 72	7 / 73	0 / 2	0
2	Demetrious Johnson	45 / 73	55 / 83	0 / 1	0
3	Wilson Reis	6 / 41	6 / 41	0 / 2	0
3	Demetrious Johnson	38 / 57	55 / 77	1 / 1	1

Demetrious Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Wilson Reis

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13