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Flyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Demetrious Johnson won · U-DEC R5
Elo1491
Demetrious Johnson
Elo1500
Tim Elliott

Demetrious JohnsonvsTim ElliottUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · Saturday, December 3, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Demetrious Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDemetrious Johnson: WrestlervsTim Elliott: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Demetrious Johnson wins(79.8%)

Actual result: Demetrious Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demetrious Johnson at -900 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Demetrious Johnson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demetrious Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Tim Elliott
Blue Corner
-900
(90%)
Vegas Odds
+600
(14%)
1491
Elo
1500
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'3"
Height
5'7"
167.64 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demetrious Johnson
oldest →
W
vs John Dodson · Sep 15
W
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16
W
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17
W
SUBvs Ray Borg · Oct 17
L
vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18
latest
Tim Elliott
oldest →
W
vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23
L
SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23
W
SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25
L
DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demetrious JohnsonMetricTim Elliott
3.43
Strikes / min
3.51
1.66
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
67%
Strike defense
56%
3.35
TDs / 15 min
3.61
65%
Takedown defense
59%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.77Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap+0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1660 vs 1472Strikes63.7 vs 56.3Takedowns4.2 vs 3.2Sub Atts0.43 vs 1.17Form1.0 vs -0.6
Demetrious JohnsonTim Elliott

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)Tim Elliott(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -8.9|Blue +8.9
Recent Form
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -434.0|Blue +434.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demetrious JohnsonTargetTim Elliott

By target zone

16
41% acc · 57%
Head
15
42% acc · 63%
4
57% acc · 14%
Body
8
40% acc · 33%
8
67% acc · 29%
Leg
1
20% acc · 4%

By position

15
38% acc · 54%
Distance
12
27% acc · 50%
4
50% acc · 14%
Clinch
11
79% acc · 46%
9
82% acc · 32%
Ground
1
50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Demetrious Johnson rounds
0
even
1
Tim Elliott rounds
Round 1Tim Elliott edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control1:20
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:21Control
Round 2Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control3:52
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control3:18
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:46Control
Round 4Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control4:10
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control3:56
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:31Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
28 / 58
Sig Strikes
24 / 61
50.6%
Sig Str %
35%
86 / 116
Total Strikes
110 / 157
5 / 7
TDs
4 / 4
73.2%
TD %
100%
3
Sub Att
2
1
Rev
0
16:36
Ctrl Time
3:38

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tim Elliott12 / 2223 / 351 / 12
1Demetrious Johnson7 / 179 / 192 / 30
2Tim Elliott4 / 1725 / 401 / 10
2Demetrious Johnson8 / 1519 / 261 / 10
3Tim Elliott5 / 1027 / 371 / 10
3Demetrious Johnson4 / 1020 / 261 / 11
4Demetrious Johnson7 / 1329 / 351 / 12
4Tim Elliott2 / 722 / 280 / 00
5Tim Elliott1 / 513 / 171 / 10
5Demetrious Johnson2 / 39 / 100 / 10

Demetrious Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights21