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FIGHTDETECTIVE
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Flyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Demetrious Johnson won · SUB R5
Elo1491
Demetrious Johnson
Elo1492

Demetrious JohnsonvsRay BorgUFC Prediction Result

UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · Saturday, October 7, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Demetrious Johnson won

SUB · Round 5 · 3:15

Style matchupDemetrious Johnson: WrestlervsRay Borg: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Demetrious Johnson wins(75.5%)

Actual result: Demetrious Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demetrious Johnson at -1000 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Demetrious Johnson has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Demetrious Johnson has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Demetrious Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Ray Borg
Blue Corner
-1000
(91%)
Vegas Odds
+650
(13%)
1491
Elo
1492
39
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'4"
167.64 cm
Reach
160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demetrious Johnson
oldest →
W
vs John Dodson · Sep 15
W
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16
W
vs Tim Elliott · Dec 16
W
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17
L
vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18
latest
Ray Borg
oldest →
W
vs Jussier Formiga · Mar 17
L
vs Casey Kenney · Mar 19
W
vs Gabriel Silva · Jul 19
W
vs Rogerio Bontorin · Feb 20
L
vs Ricky Simon · May 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demetrious JohnsonMetricRay Borg
3.43
Strikes / min
1.52
1.66
Strikes absorbed / min
1.93
67%
Strike defense
48%
3.35
TDs / 15 min
3.89
65%
Takedown defense
46%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.77Δ 2.18 — meaningful gap-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1679 vs 1549Strikes64.3 vs 19.4Takedowns4.1 vs 2.7Sub Atts0.63 vs 1.57Form1.0 vs 0.8
Demetrious JohnsonRay Borg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)Ray Borg(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +2.6|Blue -2.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demetrious JohnsonTargetRay Borg

By target zone

24
71% acc · 38%
Head
8
38% acc · 62%
34
92% acc · 53%
Body
4
67% acc · 31%
6
60% acc · 9%
Leg
1
50% acc · 8%

By position

16
57% acc · 25%
Distance
7
33% acc · 54%
10
91% acc · 16%
Clinch
5
71% acc · 38%
38
90% acc · 59%
Ground
1
100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Demetrious Johnson rounds
0
even
0
Ray Borg rounds
Round 1Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control3:04
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 2Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control3:35
0Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:08Control
Round 3Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control4:18
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Round 4Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns2
Control4:01
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:38Control
Round 5Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns3
Control2:49
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
64 / 81
Sig Strikes
13 / 29
79.4%
Sig Str %
40.4%
172 / 212
Total Strikes
22 / 39
8 / 8
TDs
3 / 10
100%
TD %
30%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
17:47
Ctrl Time
2:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ray Borg1 / 82 / 90 / 20
1Demetrious Johnson15 / 2336 / 471 / 10
2Ray Borg0 / 22 / 52 / 20
2Demetrious Johnson11 / 1142 / 481 / 10
3Ray Borg4 / 77 / 100 / 20
3Demetrious Johnson23 / 2646 / 511 / 10
4Demetrious Johnson9 / 1331 / 422 / 20
4Ray Borg5 / 67 / 81 / 20
5Ray Borg3 / 64 / 70 / 20
5Demetrious Johnson6 / 817 / 243 / 32

Demetrious Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17

Ray Borg

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights12