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Flyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Demetrious Johnson won · SUB R5
Elo1491
Demetrious Johnson
Elo1514

Demetrious JohnsonvsKyoji HoriguchiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · Saturday, April 25, 2015Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Demetrious Johnson won

SUB · Round 5 · 4:59

Style matchupDemetrious Johnson: WrestlervsKyoji Horiguchi: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Demetrious Johnson wins(76.4%)

Actual result: Demetrious Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demetrious Johnson at -980 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Demetrious Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Kyoji Horiguchi
Blue Corner
-980
(91%)
Vegas Odds
+640
(14%)
1491
Elo
1514
39
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'4"
167.64 cm
Reach
160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demetrious Johnson
oldest →
W
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16
W
vs Tim Elliott · Dec 16
W
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17
W
SUBvs Ray Borg · Oct 17
L
vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18
latest
Kyoji Horiguchi
oldest →
W
vs Neil Seery · May 16
W
vs Ali Bagautinov · Nov 16
W
SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 25
W
vs Amir Albazi · Feb 26
L
KOvs Manel Kape · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demetrious JohnsonMetricKyoji Horiguchi
3.43
Strikes / min
3.77
1.66
Strikes absorbed / min
2.13
67%
Strike defense
63%
3.35
TDs / 15 min
1.61
65%
Takedown defense
61%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.77evenly matched on net striking+1.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1621 vs 1556Strikes65.2 vs 42.5Takedowns3.7 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.45 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Demetrious JohnsonKyoji Horiguchi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901505152015351550← oldermost recent →
Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)Kyoji Horiguchi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -23.2|Blue +23.2
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demetrious JohnsonTargetKyoji Horiguchi

By target zone

21
38% acc · 32%
Head
18
26% acc · 58%
31
78% acc · 47%
Body
8
62% acc · 26%
14
56% acc · 21%
Leg
5
63% acc · 16%

By position

39
45% acc · 59%
Distance
21
28% acc · 68%
16
70% acc · 24%
Clinch
10
63% acc · 32%
11
92% acc · 17%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Demetrious Johnson rounds
0
even
0
Kyoji Horiguchi rounds
Round 1Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control1:43
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns5
Control2:37
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:35Control
Round 3Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns2
Control3:13
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control1:50
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:26Control
Round 5Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns5
Control4:20
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
66 / 121
Sig Strikes
31 / 91
58%
Sig Str %
33.4%
149 / 208
Total Strikes
61 / 127
14 / 22
TDs
1 / 5
57.8%
TD %
25%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
13:43
Ctrl Time
1:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kyoji Horiguchi8 / 2210 / 240 / 00
1Demetrious Johnson14 / 2424 / 341 / 30
2Kyoji Horiguchi7 / 2317 / 351 / 20
2Demetrious Johnson13 / 3422 / 445 / 60
3Kyoji Horiguchi7 / 1516 / 250 / 00
3Demetrious Johnson10 / 1927 / 372 / 50
4Demetrious Johnson18 / 3130 / 441 / 30
4Kyoji Horiguchi7 / 239 / 250 / 30
5Kyoji Horiguchi2 / 89 / 180 / 00
5Demetrious Johnson11 / 1346 / 495 / 51

Demetrious Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17

Kyoji Horiguchi

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights11