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Flyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Demetrious Johnson won · SUB R5
Elo1491
Demetrious Johnson
Elo1491

Demetrious JohnsonvsJohn MoragaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · Saturday, July 27, 2013Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Demetrious Johnson won

SUB · Round 5 · 3:43

Model Prediction: Demetrious Johnson wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Demetrious Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demetrious Johnson at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Demetrious Johnson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Demetrious Johnson has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Demetrious Johnson
Red Corner
VS
John Moraga
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+375
(21%)
1491
Elo
1491
39
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'6"
167.64 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demetrious Johnson
oldest →
W
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16
W
vs Tim Elliott · Dec 16
W
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17
W
SUBvs Ray Borg · Oct 17
L
vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18
latest
John Moraga
oldest →
L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17
W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17
W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17
W
vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18
L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demetrious JohnsonMetricJohn Moraga
3.43
Strikes / min
2.57
1.66
Strikes absorbed / min
2.55
67%
Strike defense
56%
3.35
TDs / 15 min
0.62
65%
Takedown defense
44%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.77Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1563 vs 1533Strikes69.0 vs 30.0Takedowns4.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.50Form0.8 vs 1.0
Demetrious JohnsonJohn Moraga

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)John Moraga(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demetrious JohnsonTargetJohn Moraga

By target zone

20
51% acc · 30%
Head
13
25% acc · 41%
23
82% acc · 34%
Body
11
79% acc · 34%
24
86% acc · 36%
Leg
8
89% acc · 25%

By position

25
60% acc · 37%
Distance
16
30% acc · 50%
10
67% acc · 15%
Clinch
10
77% acc · 31%
32
84% acc · 48%
Ground
6
60% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Demetrious Johnson rounds
1
even
0
John Moraga rounds
Round 1Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control2:13
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Round 2Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns3
Control4:00
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control2:01
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:01Control
Round 4Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns3
Control2:40
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Round 5Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns3
Control2:41
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
67 / 95
Sig Strikes
32 / 76
71%
Sig Str %
37.8%
112 / 150
Total Strikes
53 / 103
12 / 12
TDs
1 / 5
100%
TD %
16.7%
3
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
13:35
Ctrl Time
1:56

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Moraga11 / 2616 / 340 / 00
1Demetrious Johnson10 / 2016 / 261 / 11
2John Moraga8 / 1613 / 220 / 10
2Demetrious Johnson18 / 2442 / 513 / 30
3John Moraga9 / 1914 / 251 / 20
3Demetrious Johnson6 / 1013 / 222 / 21
4Demetrious Johnson19 / 2726 / 363 / 30
4John Moraga3 / 108 / 150 / 20
5John Moraga1 / 52 / 70 / 00
5Demetrious Johnson14 / 1415 / 153 / 31

Demetrious Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17

John Moraga

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14