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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Demetrious Johnson won · U-DEC R5

Elo1491

Elo1493

Demetrious JohnsonvsJohn DodsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · Saturday, September 5, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Demetrious Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDemetrious Johnson: WrestlervsJohn Dodson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Demetrious Johnson wins(85.4%)

Actual result: Demetrious Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demetrious Johnson at -560 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Dodson has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Demetrious Johnson

Red Corner

John Dodson

Blue Corner

-560

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+430

(19%)

1491

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'3"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demetrious Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16

vs Tim Elliott · Dec 16

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17

SUBvs Ray Borg · Oct 17

vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18

latest

John Dodson

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18

vs Petr Yan · Feb 19

KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demetrious JohnsonMetricJohn Dodson

3.43

Strikes / min

3.20

1.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.58

67%

Strike defense

61%

3.35

TDs / 15 min

0.71

65%

Takedown defense

82%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-0.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demetrious JohnsonJohn Dodson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)John Dodson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demetrious JohnsonTargetJohn Dodson

By target zone

46% acc · 65%

Head

23% acc · 28%

64% acc · 26%

Body

78% acc · 48%

80% acc · 9%

Leg

88% acc · 24%

By position

47% acc · 73%

Distance

44% acc · 78%

67% acc · 27%

Clinch

72% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demetrious Johnson rounds

even

John Dodson rounds

Round 1Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:10

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:30

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 3Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:12

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 4Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:47

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 5Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control1:20

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 171

Sig Strikes

58 / 121

51.2%

Sig Str %

48.6%

163 / 252

Total Strikes

108 / 174

4 / 13

TDs

1 / 3

26.4%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

4:59

Ctrl Time

2:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Dodson	10 / 21	17 / 28	0 / 0
1	Demetrious Johnson	13 / 33	15 / 35	0 / 3
2	John Dodson	13 / 29	18 / 36	1 / 2
2	Demetrious Johnson	17 / 35	33 / 53	0 / 1
3	John Dodson	7 / 12	22 / 27	0 / 0
3	Demetrious Johnson	19 / 30	49 / 64	1 / 3
4	Demetrious Johnson	21 / 38	39 / 56	1 / 3
4	John Dodson	13 / 27	18 / 33	0 / 1
5	John Dodson	15 / 32	33 / 50	0 / 0
5	Demetrious Johnson	18 / 35	27 / 44	2 / 3

Demetrious Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

John Dodson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17