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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Demetrious Johnson won · U-DEC R5

Elo1491

Elo1493

Demetrious JohnsonvsJohn DodsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · Saturday, January 26, 2013Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Demetrious Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDemetrious Johnson: WrestlervsJohn Dodson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Demetrious Johnson wins(72.0%)

Actual result: Demetrious Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demetrious Johnson at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Dodson has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Demetrious Johnson

Red Corner

John Dodson

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1491

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'3"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demetrious Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16

vs Tim Elliott · Dec 16

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17

SUBvs Ray Borg · Oct 17

vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18

latest

John Dodson

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18

vs Petr Yan · Feb 19

KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demetrious JohnsonMetricJohn Dodson

3.43

Strikes / min

3.20

1.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.58

67%

Strike defense

61%

3.35

TDs / 15 min

0.71

65%

Takedown defense

82%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-0.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demetrious JohnsonJohn Dodson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)John Dodson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +13.0|Blue -13.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demetrious JohnsonTargetJohn Dodson

By target zone

45% acc · 55%

Head

23% acc · 44%

66% acc · 23%

Body

66% acc · 40%

57% acc · 22%

Leg

75% acc · 16%

By position

32% acc · 40%

Distance

30% acc · 70%

87% acc · 57%

Clinch

73% acc · 28%

60% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demetrious Johnson rounds

even

John Dodson rounds

Round 1Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:37

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2John Dodson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:34

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:22

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control2:15

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 5Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns1

Control0:57

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

127 / 247

Sig Strikes

57 / 156

48.2%

Sig Str %

41.2%

181 / 303

Total Strikes

71 / 170

5 / 15

TDs

1 / 4

36.6%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

5:45

Ctrl Time

2:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Dodson	9 / 32	12 / 35	0 / 0
1	Demetrious Johnson	11 / 37	19 / 46	1 / 2
2	John Dodson	15 / 39	15 / 39	0 / 0
2	Demetrious Johnson	15 / 52	20 / 58	1 / 4
3	John Dodson	14 / 36	16 / 38	0 / 0
3	Demetrious Johnson	21 / 44	25 / 48	1 / 3
4	Demetrious Johnson	30 / 49	52 / 71	1 / 4
4	John Dodson	10 / 37	12 / 39	0 / 1
5	John Dodson	9 / 12	16 / 19	1 / 3
5	Demetrious Johnson	50 / 65	65 / 80	1 / 2

Demetrious Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

John Dodson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17