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Flyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Demetrious Johnson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Demetrious Johnson
Elo1472
Henry Cejudo

Demetrious JohnsonvsHenry CejudoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · Saturday, April 23, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Demetrious Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:49

Style matchupDemetrious Johnson: WrestlervsHenry Cejudo: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Demetrious Johnson wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Demetrious Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demetrious Johnson at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Demetrious Johnson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Demetrious Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Henry Cejudo
Blue Corner
-340
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+280
(26%)
1491
Elo
1472
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'4"
167.64 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demetrious Johnson
oldest →
W
vs John Dodson · Sep 15
W
vs Tim Elliott · Dec 16
W
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17
W
SUBvs Ray Borg · Oct 17
L
vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18
latest
Henry CejudoL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20
L
vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24
L
vs Song Yadong · Feb 25
L
vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demetrious JohnsonMetricHenry Cejudo
3.43
Strikes / min
3.83
1.66
Strikes absorbed / min
3.84
67%
Strike defense
57%
3.35
TDs / 15 min
1.78
65%
Takedown defense
72%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.77Δ 1.78 — meaningful gap-0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1647 vs 1564Strikes67.0 vs 56.8Takedowns4.5 vs 2.3Sub Atts0.46 vs 0.25Form1.0 vs 1.0
Demetrious JohnsonHenry Cejudo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)Henry Cejudo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +19.1|Blue -19.1
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demetrious JohnsonTargetHenry Cejudo

By target zone

10
53% acc · 48%
Head
1
14% acc · 17%
9
82% acc · 43%
Body
3
60% acc · 50%
2
67% acc · 10%
Leg
2
40% acc · 33%

By position

6
43% acc · 29%
Distance
2
22% acc · 33%
15
88% acc · 71%
Clinch
4
50% acc · 67%
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Demetrious Johnson rounds
0
even
0
Henry Cejudo rounds
Round 1Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:17
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:33Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
21 / 33
Sig Strikes
6 / 17
63%
Sig Str %
35%
35 / 47
Total Strikes
8 / 19
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:17
Ctrl Time
0:33

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Henry Cejudo6 / 178 / 191 / 10
1Demetrious Johnson21 / 3335 / 470 / 00

Demetrious Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17

Henry Cejudo

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights16