← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Demetrious Johnson won · U-DEC R5

Elo1491

Demetrious JohnsonvsAli BagautinovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · Saturday, June 14, 2014Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Demetrious Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDemetrious Johnson: WrestlervsAli Bagautinov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Demetrious Johnson wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Demetrious Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demetrious Johnson at -690 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Demetrious Johnson has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Demetrious Johnson

Red Corner

Ali Bagautinov

Blue Corner

-690

(87%)

Vegas Odds

+560

(15%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demetrious Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16

vs Tim Elliott · Dec 16

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17

SUBvs Ray Borg · Oct 17

vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18

latest

Ali Bagautinov

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Nov 13

vs John Lineker · Feb 14

vs Joseph Benavidez · Oct 15

vs Geane Herrera · Jun 16

vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demetrious JohnsonMetricAli Bagautinov

3.43

Strikes / min

2.85

1.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

67%

Strike defense

52%

3.35

TDs / 15 min

2.51

65%

Takedown defense

65%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demetrious JohnsonAli Bagautinov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)Ali Bagautinov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demetrious JohnsonTargetAli Bagautinov

By target zone

47% acc · 38%

Head

11% acc · 25%

79% acc · 31%

Body

77% acc · 67%

76% acc · 31%

Leg

25% acc · 8%

By position

49% acc · 44%

Distance

14% acc · 31%

78% acc · 55%

Clinch

61% acc · 69%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demetrious Johnson rounds

even

Ali Bagautinov rounds

Round 1Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:13

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 2Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:06

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 3Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:25

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 4Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:07

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 5Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:34

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

133 / 215

Sig Strikes

36 / 122

62%

Sig Str %

30.4%

164 / 248

Total Strikes

66 / 158

0 / 4

TDs

2 / 12

TD %

13.2%

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

8:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ali Bagautinov	4 / 20	11 / 29	1 / 3
1	Demetrious Johnson	16 / 25	21 / 31	0 / 0
2	Ali Bagautinov	11 / 27	15 / 31	0 / 1
2	Demetrious Johnson	35 / 46	39 / 51	0 / 1
3	Ali Bagautinov	7 / 30	12 / 37	1 / 3
3	Demetrious Johnson	32 / 50	38 / 56	0 / 0
4	Demetrious Johnson	24 / 45	27 / 48	0 / 3
4	Ali Bagautinov	5 / 28	9 / 32	0 / 1
5	Ali Bagautinov	9 / 17	19 / 29	0 / 4
5	Demetrious Johnson	26 / 49	39 / 62	0 / 0

Demetrious Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Ali Bagautinov

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7