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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Deiveson Figueiredo won · SUB R1

Elo1483

Elo1500

Deiveson FigueiredovsTim ElliottUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Saturday, October 12, 2019Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Deiveson Figueiredo won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:08

Style matchupDeiveson Figueiredo: Submission grapplervsTim Elliott: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Deiveson Figueiredo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Deiveson Figueiredo at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Deiveson Figueiredo

Red Corner

Tim Elliott

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1483

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Deiveson FigueiredoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Petr Yan · Nov 24

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · May 25

vs Montel Jackson · Oct 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 26

SUBvs Song Yadong · May 26

latest

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Deiveson FigueiredoMetricTim Elliott

2.63

Strikes / min

3.51

3.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

49%

Strike defense

56%

1.61

TDs / 15 min

3.61

57%

Takedown defense

59%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.84Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap+0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Deiveson FigueiredoTim Elliott

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Deiveson Figueiredo(10 fights)Tim Elliott(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.3|Blue +17.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -574.0|Blue +574.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Deiveson FigueiredoTargetTim Elliott

By target zone

62% acc · 100%

Head

63% acc · 38%

Body

20% acc · 4%

Leg

88% acc · 58%

By position

60% acc · 75%

Distance

71% acc · 77%

67% acc · 25%

Clinch

60% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Deiveson Figueiredo rounds

even

Tim Elliott rounds

Round 1Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 13

Sig Strikes

26 / 38

61%

Sig Str %

68%

8 / 13

Total Strikes

33 / 45

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Elliott	26 / 38	33 / 45	1 / 3	0
1	Deiveson Figueiredo	8 / 13	8 / 13	0 / 1	1

Deiveson Figueiredo

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights20

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21