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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Brandon Moreno won · SUB R3

Elo1483

Elo1487

Deiveson FigueiredovsBrandon MorenoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Saturday, June 12, 2021Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Brandon Moreno won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:26

Style matchupDeiveson Figueiredo: Submission grapplervsBrandon Moreno: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo wins(73.6%)

Actual result: Brandon Moreno wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Deiveson Figueiredo at -195 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Moreno has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Deiveson Figueiredo

Red Corner

Brandon Moreno

Blue Corner

-195

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1483

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Deiveson FigueiredoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Petr Yan · Nov 24

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · May 25

vs Montel Jackson · Oct 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 26

SUBvs Song Yadong · May 26

latest

Brandon MorenoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Feb 24

vs Amir Albazi · Nov 24

vs Steve Erceg · Mar 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 25

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Deiveson FigueiredoMetricBrandon Moreno

2.63

Strikes / min

3.84

3.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

49%

Strike defense

59%

1.61

TDs / 15 min

1.36

57%

Takedown defense

65%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.84Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap+0.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Deiveson FigueiredoBrandon Moreno

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Deiveson Figueiredo(10 fights)Brandon Moreno(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.8|Blue +3.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Deiveson FigueiredoTargetBrandon Moreno

By target zone

45% acc · 38%

Head

44% acc · 62%

92% acc · 46%

Body

90% acc · 19%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

56% acc · 58%

Distance

51% acc · 77%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

83% acc · 11%

90% acc · 38%

Ground

75% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Deiveson Figueiredo rounds

even

Brandon Moreno rounds

Round 1Brandon Moreno edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:30

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:08Control

Round 3Brandon Moreno edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 36

Sig Strikes

47 / 85

63%

Sig Str %

64%

33 / 45

Total Strikes

71 / 109

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 2

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:30

Ctrl Time

4:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brandon Moreno	25 / 54	28 / 57	0 / 0	0
1	Deiveson Figueiredo	7 / 13	7 / 13	0 / 0	0
2	Brandon Moreno	10 / 12	23 / 25	1 / 1	0
2	Deiveson Figueiredo	13 / 15	21 / 23	1 / 1	0
3	Brandon Moreno	12 / 19	20 / 27	1 / 1	2
3	Deiveson Figueiredo	4 / 8	5 / 9	0 / 0	0

Deiveson Figueiredo

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights20

Brandon Moreno

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18