Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Hernandez has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bill Algeo (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander Hernandez
oldest →W
vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25L
DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26 Bill AlgeoL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Herbert Burns · Jul 22L
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 24L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander HernandezMetricBill Algeo
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.22Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alexander HernandezBill Algeo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Bill Algeo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +25.6|Blue -25.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alexander HernandezTargetBill Algeo
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Alexander Hernandez rounds
Round 1Bill Algeo edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Bill Algeo edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:27
Knockdowns0
44Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Bill Algeo edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns0
Control0:08
39Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
