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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Volkov won · S-DEC R3

Elo1535

Elo1508

Alexander VolkovvsJailton AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Saturday, October 25, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Alexander Volkov won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexander Volkov: Well-roundedvsJailton Almeida: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jailton Almeida wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jailton Almeida at -198 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Volkov has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkov

Red Corner

Jailton Almeida

Blue Corner

+166

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-198

(66%)

1535

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'7"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Volkov

oldest →

KOvs Alexandr Romanov · Mar 23

SUBvs Tai Tuivasa · Sep 23

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Jun 24

vs Ciryl Gane · Dec 24

DECvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · May 26

latest

Jailton Almeida

oldest →

vs Derrick Lewis · Nov 23

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 24

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Jun 24

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Jan 25

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander VolkovMetricJailton Almeida

4.84

Strikes / min

2.23

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

1.30

54%

Strike defense

43%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

5.64

68%

Takedown defense

60%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.94Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap+0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander VolkovJailton Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Volkov(10 fights)Jailton Almeida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.3|Blue -27.3

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander VolkovTargetJailton Almeida

By target zone

90% acc · 79%

Head

89% acc · 89%

83% acc · 21%

Body

100% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 4%

Distance

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 44%

100% acc · 71%

Ground

80% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Volkov rounds

even

Jailton Almeida rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control2:14

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:38Control

Round 2Jailton Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:27Control

Round 3Jailton Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:43

5Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:42Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 27

Sig Strikes

9 / 10

79%

Sig Str %

90%

123 / 130

Total Strikes

27 / 33

0 / 0

TDs

7 / 9

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

2:57

Ctrl Time

10:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jailton Almeida	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 2
1	Alexander Volkov	15 / 15	38 / 38	0 / 0
2	Jailton Almeida	4 / 5	9 / 11	3 / 4
2	Alexander Volkov	2 / 4	8 / 10	0 / 0
3	Jailton Almeida	5 / 5	17 / 21	3 / 3
3	Alexander Volkov	7 / 8	77 / 82	0 / 0

Alexander Volkov

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights18

Jailton Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11