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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Elias Theodorou won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
Elias Theodorou
Elo1366

Elias TheodorouvsDaniel KellyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · Saturday, November 18, 2017Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Elias Theodorou won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupElias Theodorou: Well-roundedvsDaniel Kelly: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Elias Theodorou wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Elias Theodorou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elias Theodorou at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Daniel Kelly has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Kelly (53.5%).
  • Elias Theodorou has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Elias Theodorou
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Kelly
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+255
(28%)
1492
Elo
1366
38
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elias Theodorou
oldest →
W
vs Cezar Ferreira · Feb 17
L
vs Brad Tavares · Jul 17
W
vs Trevor Smith · May 18
W
vs Eryk Anders · Dec 18
L
vs Derek Brunson · May 19
latest
Daniel KellyL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Mar 16
W
vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16
W
vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17
L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17
L
KOvs Tom Breese · May 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elias TheodorouMetricDaniel Kelly
4.19
Strikes / min
3.62
2.39
Strikes absorbed / min
4.64
53%
Strike defense
61%
1.27
TDs / 15 min
1.86
59%
Takedown defense
78%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.80Δ 2.82 — meaningful gap-1.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1551 vs 1564Strikes41.7 vs 37.8Takedowns1.9 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.13Form0.0 vs 0.3
Elias TheodorouDaniel Kelly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Elias Theodorou(10 fights)Daniel Kelly(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +126.0|Blue -126.0
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -27.0|Blue +27.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elias TheodorouTargetDaniel Kelly

By target zone

49
34% acc · 42%
Head
37
33% acc · 88%
33
61% acc · 28%
Body
4
57% acc · 10%
36
69% acc · 31%
Leg
1
100% acc · 2%

By position

105
45% acc · 89%
Distance
25
28% acc · 60%
13
87% acc · 11%
Clinch
17
55% acc · 40%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Elias Theodorou rounds
0
even
0
Daniel Kelly rounds
Round 1Elias Theodorou edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Elias Theodorou edged it
Sig. strikes45
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:20Control
Round 3Elias Theodorou edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns0
Control0:55
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:39Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
118 / 250
Sig Strikes
42 / 120
47%
Sig Str %
34.7%
128 / 261
Total Strikes
54 / 133
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 7
—
TD %
35%
0
Sub Att
1
1
Rev
0
0:55
Ctrl Time
0:59

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Daniel Kelly13 / 4215 / 440 / 00
1Elias Theodorou34 / 8834 / 880 / 00
2Daniel Kelly16 / 4523 / 531 / 50
2Elias Theodorou45 / 8949 / 930 / 00
3Daniel Kelly13 / 3316 / 361 / 21
3Elias Theodorou39 / 7345 / 800 / 00

Elias Theodorou

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11

Daniel Kelly

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10