Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brian Kelleher enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Umar Nurmagomedov has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian KelleherL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Domingo Pilarte · Aug 21L
SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23L
SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24 Umar NurmagomedovW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25W
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 25W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian KelleherMetricUmar Nurmagomedov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.28Δ 3.28 — meaningful gap+2.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brian KelleherUmar Nurmagomedov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Kelleher(10 fights)Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -48.0|Blue +48.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -360.0|Blue +360.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brian KelleherTargetUmar Nurmagomedov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Umar Nurmagomedov rounds
Round 1Umar Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:06
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:27Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
