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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Caraway won · SUB R2

Elo1369

Elo1490

Bryan CarawayvsDustin NeaceUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale · Saturday, December 3, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bryan Caraway won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:38

Model Prediction: Dustin Neace wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Bryan Caraway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Neace at +360 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Caraway has 80pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bryan Caraway

Red Corner

Dustin Neace

Blue Corner

-405

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+360

(22%)

1369

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bryan CarawayL2 streak

oldest →

vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14

vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16

vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18

KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18

latest

Dustin NeaceNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bryan CarawayMetricDustin Neace

2.53

Strikes / min

2.08

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

54%

Strike defense

56%

2.57

TDs / 15 min

0.00

80%

Takedown defense

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.08evenly matched on net striking-0.58

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bryan Caraway(10 fights)Dustin Neace(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -121.1|Blue +121.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bryan CarawayTargetDustin Neace

By target zone

32% acc · 57%

Head

21% acc · 56%

50% acc · 9%

Body

100% acc · 22%

100% acc · 35%

Leg

100% acc · 22%

By position

42% acc · 96%

Distance

29% acc · 83%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bryan Caraway rounds

even

Dustin Neace rounds

Round 1Bryan Caraway edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:22

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Bryan Caraway edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control0:42

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 53

Sig Strikes

18 / 55

43.5%

Sig Str %

32%

32 / 65

Total Strikes

35 / 72

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:04

Ctrl Time

0:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Neace	12 / 30	25 / 43	0 / 0	1
1	Bryan Caraway	10 / 28	17 / 36	1 / 1	0
2	Dustin Neace	6 / 25	10 / 29	0 / 1	0
2	Bryan Caraway	13 / 25	15 / 29	2 / 2	1

Bryan Caraway

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10

Dustin Neace

Stance—

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights1