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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Umar Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1537

Elo1483

Umar NurmagomedovvsDeiveson FigueiredoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Saturday, January 24, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Umar Nurmagomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupUmar Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsDeiveson Figueiredo: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov wins(78.4%)

Actual result: Umar Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Umar Nurmagomedov at -1500 American odds

+$7 profit

$107 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Umar Nurmagomedov has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Umar Nurmagomedov has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Umar Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Deiveson Figueiredo

Blue Corner

-1500

(94%)

Vegas Odds

+870

(10%)

1537

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Umar Nurmagomedov

oldest →

KOvs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 23

vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 25

latest

Deiveson Figueiredo

oldest →

vs Marlon Vera · Aug 24

vs Petr Yan · Nov 24

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · May 25

vs Montel Jackson · Oct 25

SUBvs Song Yadong · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Umar NurmagomedovMetricDeiveson Figueiredo

3.86

Strikes / min

2.63

1.86

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

61%

Strike defense

49%

4.03

TDs / 15 min

1.61

79%

Takedown defense

57%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.00Δ 2.84 — meaningful gap-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Umar NurmagomedovDeiveson Figueiredo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)Deiveson Figueiredo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +54.1|Blue -54.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Umar NurmagomedovTargetDeiveson Figueiredo

By target zone

38% acc · 56%

Head

22% acc · 50%

65% acc · 32%

Body

50% acc · 50%

80% acc · 12%

Leg

0% acc

By position

48% acc · 82%

Distance

27% acc · 88%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

36% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Umar Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Deiveson Figueiredo rounds

Round 1Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:34

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:11

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:05

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 72

Sig Strikes

8 / 27

46.7%

Sig Str %

13.3%

103 / 167

Total Strikes

28 / 58

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:50

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Deiveson Figueiredo	0 / 6	1 / 10	0 / 0
1	Umar Nurmagomedov	9 / 19	28 / 46	1 / 2
2	Deiveson Figueiredo	8 / 20	8 / 20	0 / 0
2	Umar Nurmagomedov	19 / 40	19 / 40	0 / 3
3	Deiveson Figueiredo	0 / 1	19 / 28	0 / 0
3	Umar Nurmagomedov	6 / 13	56 / 81	1 / 1

Umar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9

Deiveson Figueiredo

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights20