Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Frevola is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Kyle Nelson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kyle NelsonL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Blake Bilder · Jun 23W
vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23W
KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26 Matt FrevolaL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Genaro Valdez · Jan 22W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Nov 22W
KOvs Drew Dober · May 23L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 23L
KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kyle NelsonMetricMatt Frevola
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.98evenly matched on net striking-0.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kyle NelsonMatt Frevola
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kyle Nelson(10 fights)Matt Frevola(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +12.9|Blue -12.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kyle NelsonTargetMatt Frevola
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kyle Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:28
Knockdowns1
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:01Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Kyle Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:20Control
Round 3Kyle Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns2
Control2:43
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:37Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
