Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Lytle has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Chris Lytle has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt SerraNo prior UFC fights on record.
Chris Lytle
oldest →W
SUBvs Matt Brown · Jul 10L
vs Brian Ebersole · Feb 11W
SUBvs Dan Hardy · Aug 11 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt SerraMetricChris Lytle
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.66Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.73
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matt SerraChris Lytle
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Serra(1 fights)Chris Lytle(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +48.0|Blue -48.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +49.6|Blue -49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matt SerraTargetChris Lytle
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns0
Control0:00
44Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Chris Lytle edged it
Sig. strikes42
Takedowns0
Control0:00
62Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Chris Lytle edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:00
47Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
