Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Damir Ismagulov has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Damir IsmagulovL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Thiago Moises · Aug 19W
vs Rafael Alves · May 21W
vs Guram Kutateladze · Jun 22L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 22L
vs Grant Dawson · Jul 23 Joel Alvarez
oldest →W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Damir IsmagulovMetricJoel Alvarez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.92evenly matched on net striking+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Damir IsmagulovJoel Alvarez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Damir Ismagulov(7 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -44.6|Blue +44.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Damir IsmagulovTargetJoel Alvarez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Damir Ismagulov edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Damir Ismagulov edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Damir Ismagulov edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
