← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Austin Lingo won · U-DEC

Elo1394

Elo1467

Jacob KilburnvsAustin LingoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · Saturday, January 16, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Austin Lingo won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Austin Lingo wins(51.3%)

Actual result: Austin Lingo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Austin Lingo at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Austin Lingo has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Austin Lingo has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jacob Kilburn

Red Corner

Austin Lingo

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1394

Elo

1467

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacob Kilburn

oldest →

SUBvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 19

latest

Austin LingoL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Youssef Zalel · Feb 20

vs Luis Saldana · Aug 21

SUBvs Nate Landwehr · Mar 23

vs Melquizael Costa · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacob KilburnMetricAustin Lingo

2.56

Strikes / min

3.86

6.78

Strikes absorbed / min

4.86

35%

Strike defense

57%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.43

20%

Takedown defense

75%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-4.22Δ 3.22 — meaningful gap-1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jacob KilburnAustin Lingo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jacob Kilburn(2 fights)Austin Lingo(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -72.6|Blue +72.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacob KilburnTargetAustin Lingo

By target zone

27% acc · 73%

Head

49% acc · 85%

42% acc · 13%

Body

83% acc · 11%

90% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

32% acc · 94%

Distance

53% acc · 98%

38% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

33% acc · 2%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jacob Kilburn rounds

even

Austin Lingo rounds

Round 1Austin Lingo edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:36

Knockdowns0

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Austin Lingo edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:33

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 3Austin Lingo edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 201

Sig Strikes

95 / 182

31.3%

Sig Str %

52%

78 / 216

Total Strikes

110 / 197

1 / 18

TDs

1 / 2

5.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:09

Ctrl Time

3:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Austin Lingo	44 / 83	45 / 84	0 / 0	0
1	Jacob Kilburn	21 / 74	21 / 74	0 / 6	0
2	Austin Lingo	26 / 48	26 / 48	1 / 2	0
2	Jacob Kilburn	19 / 58	23 / 62	1 / 6	0
3	Austin Lingo	25 / 51	39 / 65	0 / 0	0
3	Jacob Kilburn	24 / 69	34 / 80	0 / 6	1

Jacob Kilburn

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2

Austin Lingo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5