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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Danny Roberts won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1467

Elo1363

Danny RobertsvsBobby NashUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · Sunday, July 16, 2017Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Danny Roberts won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:59

Style matchupDanny Roberts: StrikervsBobby Nash: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Danny Roberts wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Danny Roberts wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Roberts at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Roberts enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Bobby Nash has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Danny Roberts (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Danny Roberts

Red Corner

Bobby Nash

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1467

Elo

1363

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny RobertsL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Zelim Imadaev · Nov 19

vs Ramazan Emeev · Oct 21

vs Francisco Trinaldo · May 22

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 22

KOvs Jonny Parsons · Jul 23

latest

Bobby NashL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Li Jingliang · Jan 17

KOvs Song Kenan · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny RobertsMetricBobby Nash

3.18

Strikes / min

3.42

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

3.95

50%

Strike defense

51%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

2.37

57%

Takedown defense

100%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.55evenly matched on net striking-0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny RobertsBobby Nash

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Roberts(10 fights)Bobby Nash(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +104.7|Blue -104.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny RobertsTargetBobby Nash

By target zone

30% acc · 58%

Head

33% acc · 60%

50% acc · 29%

Body

42% acc · 20%

60% acc · 13%

Leg

83% acc · 20%

By position

33% acc · 75%

Distance

34% acc · 72%

63% acc · 21%

Clinch

70% acc · 28%

33% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Roberts rounds

even

Bobby Nash rounds

Round 1Bobby Nash edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:46Control

Round 2Danny Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:15Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 65

Sig Strikes

25 / 63

36.5%

Sig Str %

40.5%

29 / 71

Total Strikes

46 / 91

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 5

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

3:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bobby Nash	11 / 35	25 / 53	2 / 2
1	Danny Roberts	10 / 30	11 / 31	0 / 0
2	Bobby Nash	14 / 28	21 / 38	0 / 3
2	Danny Roberts	14 / 35	18 / 40	0 / 1

Danny Roberts

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Bobby Nash

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3