Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jason Knight enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Alex Caceres has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alex Caceres has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex CaceresL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22W
KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22W
vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23L
vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23L
vs Sean Woodson · May 24 Jason KnightL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Chas Skelly · May 17L
KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Jul 17L
vs Gabriel Benitez · Dec 17L
vs Makwan Amirkhani · May 18L
vs Jordan Rinaldi · Nov 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex CaceresMetricJason Knight
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.12Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alex CaceresJason Knight
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Caceres(10 fights)Jason Knight(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +131.2|Blue -131.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alex CaceresTargetJason Knight
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:01
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:37Control
Round 2Jason Knight edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:48Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
