Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Brian Kelleher has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Brian Kelleher has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).
- Ray Rodriguez has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian KelleherL4 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22L
SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23L
SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24 Ray Rodriguez
oldest →L
SUBvs Rani Yahya · Mar 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian KelleherMetricRay Rodriguez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.28Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap-2.99
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brian KelleherRay Rodriguez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Kelleher(10 fights)Ray Rodriguez(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +91.8|Blue -91.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.9|Blue +48.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brian KelleherTargetRay Rodriguez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ray Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:12Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
