Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ramazan Emeev won · S-DEC

Elo1407

Elo1428

David ZawadavsRamazan EmeevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · Saturday, January 16, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Ramazan Emeev won

S-DEC

Style matchupDavid Zawada: Submission grapplervsRamazan Emeev: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: David Zawada wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Ramazan Emeev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Zawada at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ramazan Emeev has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Ramazan Emeev (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

David Zawada

Red Corner

Ramazan Emeev

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-275

(73%)

1407

Elo

1428

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David Zawada

oldest →

vs Danny Roberts · Jul 18

KOvs Li Jingliang · Nov 18

SUBvs Abubakar Nurmagomedov · Nov 19

vs Alex Morono · Sep 21

latest

Ramazan EmeevL2 streak

oldest →

vs Stefan Sekulic · Sep 18

DECvs Rocco Martin · Nov 19

vs Niklas Stolze · Jul 20

vs Danny Roberts · Oct 21

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David ZawadaMetricRamazan Emeev

3.84

Strikes / min

2.53

4.54

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

55%

Strike defense

65%

0.97

TDs / 15 min

2.37

57%

Takedown defense

66%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70Δ 1.09 — meaningful gap+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

David ZawadaRamazan Emeev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

David Zawada(5 fights)Ramazan Emeev(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.6|Blue +20.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +259.0|Blue -259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David ZawadaTargetRamazan Emeev

By target zone

27% acc · 55%

Head

44% acc · 68%

60% acc · 14%

Body

87% acc · 25%

88% acc · 32%

Leg

80% acc · 8%

By position

33% acc · 68%

Distance

44% acc · 68%

57% acc · 30%

Clinch

86% acc · 23%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

David Zawada rounds

even

Ramazan Emeev rounds

Round 1Ramazan Emeev edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:20

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:33Control

Round 2Ramazan Emeev edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:03

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 3Ramazan Emeev edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:43

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 114

Sig Strikes

53 / 101

39.3%

Sig Str %

54.3%

114 / 190

Total Strikes

101 / 160

1 / 1

TDs

4 / 9

100%

TD %

47%

Sub Att

Rev

2:06

Ctrl Time

4:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ramazan Emeev	21 / 41	39 / 61	2 / 3
1	David Zawada	17 / 43	41 / 69	0 / 0
2	Ramazan Emeev	18 / 39	31 / 56	1 / 4
2	David Zawada	17 / 49	33 / 67	0 / 0
3	Ramazan Emeev	14 / 21	31 / 43	1 / 2
3	David Zawada	10 / 22	40 / 54	1 / 1

David Zawada

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5

Ramazan Emeev

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8