Lightweight

3 Rounds

David Onama won · U-DEC R3

Elo1513

Elo1480

David OnamavsRoberto RomeroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Saturday, November 16, 2024New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

David Onama won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDavid Onama: Pressure fightervsRoberto Romero: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: David Onama wins(67.8%)

Actual result: David Onama wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Onama at -1450 American odds

+$7 profit

$107 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roberto Romero has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
David Onama has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

David Onama

Red Corner

Roberto Romero

Blue Corner

-1450

(94%)

Vegas Odds

+850

(11%)

1513

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David Onama

oldest →

vs Nate Landwehr · Aug 22

KOvs Gabriel Santos · Jun 23

vs Jonathan Pearce · Apr 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Apr 25

KOvs Steve Garcia · Nov 25

latest

Roberto Romero

oldest →

KOvs Timmy Cuamba · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David OnamaMetricRoberto Romero

5.07

Strikes / min

4.56

4.89

Strikes absorbed / min

6.44

51%

Strike defense

44%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

0.00

52%

Takedown defense

71%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18Δ 2.06 — meaningful gap-1.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

David OnamaRoberto Romero

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

David Onama(9 fights)Roberto Romero(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.8|Blue -32.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David OnamaTargetRoberto Romero

By target zone

53% acc · 75%

Head

31% acc · 41%

64% acc · 15%

Body

67% acc · 19%

86% acc · 10%

Leg

81% acc · 41%

By position

56% acc · 70%

Distance

47% acc · 92%

73% acc · 7%

Clinch

63% acc · 7%

57% acc · 23%

Ground

33% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

David Onama rounds

even

Roberto Romero rounds

Round 1David Onama edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:15

Knockdowns1

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:14Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2David Onama edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control1:26

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3David Onama edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns1

Control2:42

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

121 / 213

Sig Strikes

74 / 155

56.3%

Sig Str %

44.3%

145 / 242

Total Strikes

79 / 165

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:23

Ctrl Time

1:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Roberto Romero	39 / 68	42 / 72	0 / 0	0
1	David Onama	44 / 69	48 / 73	0 / 0	1
2	Roberto Romero	26 / 61	26 / 61	0 / 0	0
2	David Onama	36 / 74	47 / 87	0 / 0	0
3	Roberto Romero	9 / 26	11 / 32	0 / 0	0
3	David Onama	41 / 70	50 / 82	1 / 3	0

David Onama

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Roberto Romero

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2