Featherweight

3 Rounds

David Onama won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1513

Elo1512

David OnamavsGabriel SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · Saturday, June 24, 2023Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

David Onama won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:13

Style matchupDavid Onama: Pressure fightervsGabriel Santos: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Gabriel Santos wins(68.0%)

Actual result: David Onama wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gabriel Santos at -225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriel Santos has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
David Onama has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

David Onama

Red Corner

Gabriel Santos

Blue Corner

+188

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1513

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David Onama

oldest →

vs Nate Landwehr · Aug 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Apr 24

vs Roberto Romero · Nov 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Apr 25

KOvs Steve Garcia · Nov 25

latest

Gabriel SantosW2 streak

oldest →

vs Lerone Murphy · Mar 23

vs Yizha · Sep 24

SUBvs Jack Jenkins · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David OnamaMetricGabriel Santos

5.07

Strikes / min

4.35

4.89

Strikes absorbed / min

4.31

51%

Strike defense

45%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

3.80

52%

Takedown defense

87%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking+0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

David OnamaGabriel Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

David Onama(9 fights)Gabriel Santos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +217.0|Blue -217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David OnamaTargetGabriel Santos

By target zone

49% acc · 89%

Head

48% acc · 56%

50% acc · 6%

Body

64% acc · 23%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

62% acc · 21%

By position

49% acc · 79%

Distance

51% acc · 92%

60% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

62% acc · 15%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

David Onama rounds

even

Gabriel Santos rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:23

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 2David Onama edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control1:30

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:55Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 104

Sig Strikes

39 / 73

50.5%

Sig Str %

55%

59 / 118

Total Strikes

56 / 90

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:53

Ctrl Time

1:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gabriel Santos	25 / 50	33 / 58	1 / 2	2
1	David Onama	27 / 52	30 / 57	0 / 1	0
2	Gabriel Santos	14 / 23	23 / 32	1 / 2	0
2	David Onama	26 / 52	29 / 61	0 / 0	0

David Onama

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Gabriel Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4