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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Li Jingliang won · Decision R3
Elo1490
David Michaud
Elo1495
Li Jingliang

David MichaudvsLi JingliangUFC Prediction Result

UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · Saturday, May 24, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Li Jingliang won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDavid Michaud: WrestlervsLi Jingliang: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Li Jingliang wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Li Jingliang wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Li Jingliang at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • David Michaud has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

David Michaud
Red Corner
VS
Li Jingliang
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
1490
Elo
1495
37
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David Michaud
oldest →
W
vs Garett Whiteley · Dec 14
L
SUBvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 15
latest
Li JingliangL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 21
L
SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 21
W
KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 22
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Sep 22
L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David MichaudMetricLi Jingliang
3.25
Strikes / min
4.46
4.45
Strikes absorbed / min
3.95
54%
Strike defense
56%
2.53
TDs / 15 min
1.19
77%
Takedown defense
60%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.20Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap+0.51
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
David Michaud(3 fights)Li Jingliang(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -4.5|Blue +4.5
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David MichaudTargetLi Jingliang

By target zone

29
29% acc · 71%
Head
46
35% acc · 75%
8
62% acc · 20%
Body
3
60% acc · 5%
4
50% acc · 10%
Leg
12
67% acc · 20%

By position

28
28% acc · 68%
Distance
38
33% acc · 62%
7
58% acc · 17%
Clinch
7
54% acc · 11%
6
67% acc · 15%
Ground
16
59% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
David Michaud rounds
0
even
3
Li Jingliang rounds
Round 1Li Jingliang edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns1
Control0:08
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:29Control
Round 2Li Jingliang edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control1:36
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 3Li Jingliang edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control1:47
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
41 / 121
Sig Strikes
61 / 156
34%
Sig Str %
39.3%
69 / 152
Total Strikes
84 / 180
3 / 8
TDs
2 / 6
52.7%
TD %
60%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:31
Ctrl Time
3:35

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Li Jingliang21 / 5925 / 641 / 50
1David Michaud21 / 6228 / 691 / 10
2Li Jingliang22 / 5727 / 620 / 00
2David Michaud10 / 3519 / 461 / 41
3Li Jingliang18 / 4032 / 541 / 10
3David Michaud10 / 2422 / 371 / 31

David Michaud

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach—
Fights3

Li Jingliang

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17