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Lightweight

3 Rounds

David Michaud won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1354

David MichaudvsGarett WhiteleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · Saturday, December 13, 2014Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

David Michaud won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: David Michaud wins(82.9%)

Actual result: David Michaud wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Michaud at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

David Michaud has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

David Michaud

Red Corner

Garett Whiteley

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1490

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David MichaudL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Li Jingliang · May 14

SUBvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 15

latest

Garett WhiteleyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alan Patrick · Oct 13

vs Vinc Pichel · Jan 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David MichaudMetricGarett Whiteley

3.25

Strikes / min

3.72

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.04

54%

Strike defense

46%

2.53

TDs / 15 min

0.00

77%

Takedown defense

27%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.20evenly matched on net striking-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

David MichaudGarett Whiteley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

David Michaud(3 fights)Garett Whiteley(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.4|Blue -136.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -129.0|Blue +129.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David MichaudTargetGarett Whiteley

By target zone

50% acc · 73%

Head

34% acc · 55%

77% acc · 22%

Body

81% acc · 29%

57% acc · 5%

Leg

80% acc · 16%

By position

48% acc · 62%

Distance

43% acc · 75%

67% acc · 13%

Clinch

54% acc · 9%

73% acc · 25%

Ground

71% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

David Michaud rounds

even

Garett Whiteley rounds

Round 1David Michaud edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control0:52

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2David Michaud edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control4:25

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3David Michaud edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns2

Control2:14

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 140

Sig Strikes

75 / 161

59.3%

Sig Str %

50%

123 / 204

Total Strikes

112 / 207

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:31

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Garett Whiteley	28 / 73	34 / 80	0 / 1
1	David Michaud	29 / 60	38 / 69	1 / 1
2	Garett Whiteley	15 / 24	37 / 52	0 / 0
2	David Michaud	19 / 24	39 / 52	1 / 1
3	Garett Whiteley	32 / 64	41 / 75	0 / 0
3	David Michaud	29 / 56	46 / 83	2 / 2

David Michaud

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights3

Garett Whiteley

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3