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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Mario Miranda won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1351

David LoiseauvsMario MirandaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin · Saturday, June 12, 2010Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Mario Miranda won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:07

Model Prediction: David Loiseau wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Mario Miranda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Loiseau at +205 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mario Miranda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mario Miranda has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

David Loiseau

Red Corner

Mario Miranda

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

1490

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David LoiseauNo prior UFC fights on record.

Mario MirandaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gerald Harris · Mar 10

vs Demian Maia · Aug 10

vs Aaron Simpson · Mar 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David LoiseauMetricMario Miranda

1.59

Strikes / min

1.96

3.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.46

43%

Strike defense

36%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.02

36%

Takedown defense

54%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.05Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap-0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

David LoiseauMario Miranda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

David Loiseau(1 fights)Mario Miranda(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.1|Blue -139.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David LoiseauTargetMario Miranda

By target zone

13% acc · 50%

Head

65% acc · 83%

100% acc · 50%

Body

75% acc · 14%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

13% acc · 50%

Distance

40% acc · 5%

50% acc · 50%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

Ground

69% acc · 86%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

David Loiseau rounds

even

Mario Miranda rounds

Round 1Mario Miranda edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:40

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:50Control

Round 2Mario Miranda edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 10

Sig Strikes

42 / 63

20.5%

Sig Str %

65%

3 / 11

Total Strikes

131 / 194

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

7:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mario Miranda	14 / 23	55 / 72	2 / 2
1	David Loiseau	1 / 4	2 / 5	0 / 0
2	Mario Miranda	28 / 40	76 / 122	1 / 1
2	David Loiseau	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 0

David Loiseau

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights1

Mario Miranda

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4