← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Manel Kape won · U-DEC R3

Elo1463

Elo1558

David DvorakvsManel KapeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Saturday, December 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Manel Kape won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDavid Dvorak: Well-roundedvsManel Kape: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Manel Kape wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Manel Kape wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Manel Kape at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Manel Kape enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Manel Kape (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

David Dvorak

Red Corner

Manel Kape

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1463

Elo

1558

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David DvorakL2 streak

oldest →

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 20

vs Jordan Espinosa · Sep 20

SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · May 21

vs Matheus Nicolau · Mar 22

vs Steve Erceg · Jun 23

latest

Manel KapeW4 streak

oldest →

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Jul 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 24

KOvs Asu Almabayev · Mar 25

KOvs Brandon Royval · Dec 25

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David DvorakMetricManel Kape

3.48

Strikes / min

5.04

3.29

Strikes absorbed / min

4.08

59%

Strike defense

57%

0.58

TDs / 15 min

0.40

70%

Takedown defense

81%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

David DvorakManel Kape

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

David Dvorak(6 fights)Manel Kape(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -94.8|Blue +94.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David DvorakTargetManel Kape

By target zone

25% acc · 52%

Head

39% acc · 57%

50% acc · 18%

Body

73% acc · 33%

71% acc · 30%

Leg

75% acc · 10%

By position

34% acc · 94%

Distance

44% acc · 76%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

60% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

David Dvorak rounds

even

Manel Kape rounds

Round 1David Dvorak edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:59

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:29

Knockdowns0

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:14

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 94

Sig Strikes

58 / 119

36.7%

Sig Str %

40%

55 / 122

Total Strikes

67 / 136

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:42

Ctrl Time

0:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Manel Kape	2 / 9	7 / 18	0 / 0	2
1	David Dvorak	6 / 15	16 / 26	1 / 1	0
2	Manel Kape	37 / 63	38 / 68	0 / 0	0
2	David Dvorak	14 / 33	25 / 48	1 / 1	0
3	Manel Kape	19 / 47	22 / 50	0 / 0	0
3	David Dvorak	13 / 46	14 / 48	0 / 1	0

David Dvorak

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Manel Kape

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11