Flyweight

3 Rounds

David Dvorak won · SUB

Elo1463

Elo1450

David DvorakvsJuancamilo RonderosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · Saturday, May 22, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

David Dvorak won

SUB

Style matchupDavid Dvorak: Well-roundedvsJuancamilo Ronderos: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: David Dvorak wins(60.8%)

Actual result: David Dvorak wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Dvorak at -490 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

David Dvorak enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
David Dvorak has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
David Dvorak has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

David Dvorak

Red Corner

Juancamilo Ronderos

Blue Corner

-490

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+390

(20%)

1463

Elo

1450

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'3"

172.72 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David DvorakL3 streak

oldest →

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 20

vs Jordan Espinosa · Sep 20

vs Matheus Nicolau · Mar 22

vs Manel Kape · Dec 22

vs Steve Erceg · Jun 23

latest

Juancamilo Ronderos

oldest →

SUBvs Clayton Carpenter · Feb 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David DvorakMetricJuancamilo Ronderos

3.48

Strikes / min

2.18

3.29

Strikes absorbed / min

2.18

59%

Strike defense

63%

0.58

TDs / 15 min

2.72

70%

Takedown defense

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

David DvorakJuancamilo Ronderos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

David Dvorak(6 fights)Juancamilo Ronderos(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.5|Blue -12.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David DvorakTargetJuancamilo Ronderos

By target zone

21% acc · 44%

Head

20% acc · 45%

50% acc · 44%

Body

100% acc · 18%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

80% acc · 36%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

30% acc · 73%

Clinch

60% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

David Dvorak rounds

even

Juancamilo Ronderos rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:23

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 28

Sig Strikes

11 / 32

32%

Sig Str %

34%

9 / 28

Total Strikes

12 / 33

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Juancamilo Ronderos	11 / 32	12 / 33	0 / 2	0
1	David Dvorak	9 / 28	9 / 28	0 / 0	1

David Dvorak

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Juancamilo Ronderos

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights2