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Middleweight

3 Rounds

David Branch won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1372

Elo1432

David BranchvsThiago SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · Saturday, April 21, 2018Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

David Branch won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:30

Style matchupDavid Branch: WrestlervsThiago Santos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Thiago Santos wins(71.5%)

Actual result: David Branch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Santos at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

David Branch enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). David Branch has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Thiago Santos has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

David Branch

Red Corner

Thiago Santos

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1372

Elo

1432

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David BranchL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Mar 11

vs Krzysztof Jotko · May 17

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Sep 17

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Nov 18

SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Mar 19

latest

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David BranchMetricThiago Santos

1.66

Strikes / min

3.72

1.91

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

56%

Strike defense

53%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

0.88

43%

Takedown defense

65%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.25Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap+1.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

David BranchThiago Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

David Branch(9 fights)Thiago Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -60.5|Blue +60.5

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David BranchTargetThiago Santos

By target zone

36% acc · 100%

Head

24% acc · 29%

0% acc

Body

67% acc · 14%

Leg

89% acc · 57%

By position

9% acc · 20%

Distance

48% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 80%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

David Branch rounds

even

Thiago Santos rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 15

Sig Strikes

14 / 29

33%

Sig Str %

48%

5 / 15

Total Strikes

14 / 29

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thiago Santos	14 / 29	14 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	David Branch	5 / 15	5 / 15	0 / 1	0

David Branch

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24