← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Rousimar Palhares won · SUB R2

Elo1372

Elo1490

David BranchvsRousimar PalharesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · Thursday, March 3, 2011Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Rousimar Palhares won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:44

Style matchupDavid Branch: WrestlervsRousimar Palhares: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: David Branch wins(74.7%)

Actual result: Rousimar Palhares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Branch at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rousimar Palhares threatens submissions; David Branch has lost 40% of fights by sub.
David Branch has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
David Branch has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

David Branch

Red Corner

Rousimar Palhares

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1372

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'8"

198.12 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David BranchL2 streak

oldest →

vs Krzysztof Jotko · May 17

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Sep 17

KOvs Thiago Santos · Apr 18

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Nov 18

SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Mar 19

latest

Rousimar Palhares

oldest →

vs Dan Miller · Aug 11

SUBvs Mike Massenzio · Jan 12

KOvs Alan Belcher · May 12

KOvs Hector Lombard · Dec 12

SUBvs Mike Pierce · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David BranchMetricRousimar Palhares

1.66

Strikes / min

1.75

1.91

Strikes absorbed / min

2.04

56%

Strike defense

59%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

3.93

43%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

4.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.25evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

David BranchRousimar Palhares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

David Branch(9 fights)Rousimar Palhares(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -118.5|Blue +118.5

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -80.0|Blue +80.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David BranchTargetRousimar Palhares

By target zone

11% acc · 33%

Head

100% acc · 100%

67% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

0% acc

By position

19% acc · 50%

Distance

67% acc · 100%

Clinch

43% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

David Branch rounds

even

Rousimar Palhares rounds

Round 1David Branch edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control3:14

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:04

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 23

Sig Strikes

2 / 3

30%

Sig Str %

50%

17 / 35

Total Strikes

4 / 5

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:18

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rousimar Palhares	0 / 1	2 / 3	0 / 1	2
1	David Branch	3 / 16	14 / 28	1 / 1	0
2	Rousimar Palhares	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 1	1
2	David Branch	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0	0

David Branch

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9

Rousimar Palhares

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8