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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jared Cannonier won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1372

Elo1481

David BranchvsJared CannonierUFC Prediction Result

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 3, 2018New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Jared Cannonier won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:39

Style matchupDavid Branch: WrestlervsJared Cannonier: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: David Branch wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Jared Cannonier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Branch at -325 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Cannonier is a KO finisher (64% of wins). David Branch has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Jared Cannonier has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jared Cannonier (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

David Branch

Red Corner

Jared Cannonier

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1372

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

5'11"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David Branch

oldest →

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Mar 11

vs Krzysztof Jotko · May 17

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Sep 17

KOvs Thiago Santos · Apr 18

SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Mar 19

latest

Jared CannonierL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24

vs Caio Borralho · Aug 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 25

vs Michael Page · Aug 25

DECvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David BranchMetricJared Cannonier

1.66

Strikes / min

4.42

1.91

Strikes absorbed / min

4.35

56%

Strike defense

56%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

0.54

43%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

David BranchJared Cannonier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

David Branch(9 fights)Jared Cannonier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -109.5|Blue +109.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David BranchTargetJared Cannonier

By target zone

38% acc · 80%

Head

42% acc · 85%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 8%

67% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

38% acc · 80%

Distance

18% acc · 19%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

79% acc · 42%

33% acc · 10%

Ground

71% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

David Branch rounds

even

Jared Cannonier rounds

Round 1David Branch edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns3

Control1:58

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 2Jared Cannonier edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 25

Sig Strikes

26 / 56

33.5%

Sig Str %

49%

13 / 28

Total Strikes

31 / 61

3 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

16.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:58

Ctrl Time

0:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Cannonier	13 / 35	17 / 39	0 / 0
1	David Branch	9 / 21	12 / 24	3 / 9
2	Jared Cannonier	13 / 21	14 / 22	0 / 0
2	David Branch	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 1

David Branch

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21