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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jack Hermansson won · SUB R1

Elo1372

Elo1480

David BranchvsJack HermanssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Saturday, March 30, 2019Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Jack Hermansson won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:49

Style matchupDavid Branch: WrestlervsJack Hermansson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jack Hermansson wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Jack Hermansson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Hermansson at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jack Hermansson has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

David Branch

Red Corner

Jack Hermansson

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1372

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David Branch

oldest →

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Mar 11

vs Krzysztof Jotko · May 17

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Sep 17

KOvs Thiago Santos · Apr 18

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Nov 18

latest

Jack HermanssonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22

vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25

KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David BranchMetricJack Hermansson

1.66

Strikes / min

5.15

1.91

Strikes absorbed / min

3.72

56%

Strike defense

56%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

1.48

43%

Takedown defense

80%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.25Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

David BranchJack Hermansson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

David Branch(9 fights)Jack Hermansson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -108.7|Blue +108.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David BranchTargetJack Hermansson

By target zone

17% acc · 100%

Head

17% acc · 33%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 67%

By position

17% acc · 100%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

David Branch rounds

even

Jack Hermansson rounds

Round 1Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:04

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 6

Sig Strikes

3 / 10

16%

Sig Str %

30%

1 / 6

Total Strikes

3 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jack Hermansson	3 / 10	3 / 10	1 / 2	1
1	David Branch	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 0	0

David Branch

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19