Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Davey Grant won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1521

Elo1425

Davey GrantvsLouis SmolkaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · Saturday, May 14, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Davey Grant won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:49

Style matchupDavey Grant: Pressure fightervsLouis Smolka: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Davey Grant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Louis Smolka at +230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Davey Grant has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Davey Grant

Red Corner

Louis Smolka

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1521

Elo

1425

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Davey Grant

oldest →

vs Daniel Marcos · Jul 23

vs Ramon Taveras · Dec 24

vs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jul 25

SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Oct 25

DECvs Adrian Luna Martinetti · Apr 26

latest

Louis Smolka

oldest →

SUBvs Matt Schnell · Mar 19

KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19

SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20

KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20

KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Davey GrantMetricLouis Smolka

5.58

Strikes / min

4.67

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

54%

Strike defense

53%

0.95

TDs / 15 min

1.69

65%

Takedown defense

32%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.54evenly matched on net striking+0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Davey GrantLouis Smolka

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Davey Grant(10 fights)Louis Smolka(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +95.7|Blue -95.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Davey GrantTargetLouis Smolka

By target zone

27% acc · 44%

Head

46% acc · 65%

69% acc · 36%

Body

61% acc · 27%

76% acc · 20%

Leg

86% acc · 8%

By position

38% acc · 84%

Distance

50% acc · 94%

75% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

78% acc · 9%

Ground

60% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Davey Grant rounds

even

Louis Smolka rounds

Round 1Davey Grant edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:22

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Louis Smolka edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:06

56Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 3Davey Grant edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:07

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

81 / 197

Sig Strikes

71 / 139

42%

Sig Str %

36%

84 / 200

Total Strikes

75 / 145

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:35

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Louis Smolka	14 / 37	14 / 37	0 / 1
1	Davey Grant	45 / 90	46 / 91	0 / 0
2	Louis Smolka	56 / 93	60 / 99	0 / 1
2	Davey Grant	27 / 87	29 / 89	0 / 1
3	Louis Smolka	1 / 9	1 / 9	0 / 1
3	Davey Grant	9 / 20	9 / 20	0 / 0

Davey Grant

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights16

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17