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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Marcos won · S-DEC R3

Elo1521

Elo1526

Davey GrantvsDaniel MarcosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Saturday, July 22, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Daniel Marcos won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDavey Grant: Pressure fightervsDaniel Marcos: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Daniel Marcos wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Daniel Marcos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Marcos at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Marcos has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Davey Grant

Red Corner

Daniel Marcos

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1521

Elo

1526

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Davey Grant

oldest →

SUBvs Raphael Assuncao · Mar 23

vs Ramon Taveras · Dec 24

vs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jul 25

SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Oct 25

DECvs Adrian Luna Martinetti · Apr 26

latest

Daniel Marcos

oldest →

KOvs Saimon Oliveira · Jan 23

vs John Castaneda · Jun 24

vs Adrian Yanez · Dec 24

vs Montel Jackson · May 25

SUBvs Miles Johns · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Davey GrantMetricDaniel Marcos

5.58

Strikes / min

4.90

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.79

54%

Strike defense

61%

0.95

TDs / 15 min

1.35

65%

Takedown defense

85%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.54evenly matched on net striking+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Davey GrantDaniel Marcos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Davey Grant(10 fights)Daniel Marcos(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.5|Blue +5.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Davey GrantTargetDaniel Marcos

By target zone

13% acc · 24%

Head

23% acc · 44%

49% acc · 39%

Body

25% acc · 13%

79% acc · 37%

Leg

81% acc · 44%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

34% acc · 98%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Davey Grant rounds

even

Daniel Marcos rounds

Round 1Davey Grant edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Davey Grant edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Davey Grant edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:06

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 215

Sig Strikes

48 / 140

32%

Sig Str %

34.3%

70 / 215

Total Strikes

49 / 141

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Marcos	13 / 35	13 / 35	0 / 0
1	Davey Grant	16 / 49	16 / 49	0 / 0
2	Daniel Marcos	15 / 51	15 / 51	0 / 0
2	Davey Grant	26 / 75	26 / 75	0 / 0
3	Daniel Marcos	20 / 54	21 / 55	1 / 1
3	Davey Grant	28 / 91	28 / 91	0 / 1

Davey Grant

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights16

Daniel Marcos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6