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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Damian Stasiak won · SUB R3

Elo1521

Elo1367

Davey GrantvsDamian StasiakUFC Prediction Result

UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · Saturday, October 8, 2016Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Damian Stasiak won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:56

Style matchupDavey Grant: Pressure fightervsDamian Stasiak: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Davey Grant wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Damian Stasiak wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Davey Grant at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Damian Stasiak enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Damian Stasiak threatens submissions; Davey Grant has lost 57% of fights by sub.
Davey Grant has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Davey Grant

Red Corner

Damian Stasiak

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1521

Elo

1367

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Davey Grant

oldest →

vs Daniel Marcos · Jul 23

vs Ramon Taveras · Dec 24

vs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jul 25

SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Oct 25

DECvs Adrian Luna Martinetti · Apr 26

latest

Damian StasiakL3 streak

oldest →

vs Yaotzin Meza · Apr 15

SUBvs Filip Pejic · Apr 16

vs Pedro Munhoz · May 17

KOvs Brian Kelleher · Oct 17

vs Liu Pingyuan · Jul 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Davey GrantMetricDamian Stasiak

5.58

Strikes / min

1.86

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

54%

Strike defense

52%

0.95

TDs / 15 min

2.64

65%

Takedown defense

43%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.54Δ 2.78 — meaningful gap-1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Davey GrantDamian Stasiak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Davey Grant(10 fights)Damian Stasiak(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +43.0|Blue -43.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Davey GrantTargetDamian Stasiak

By target zone

34% acc · 64%

Head

26% acc · 70%

79% acc · 31%

Body

25% acc · 30%

67% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 56%

Distance

23% acc · 80%

59% acc · 36%

Clinch

33% acc · 10%

50% acc · 8%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Davey Grant rounds

even

Damian Stasiak rounds

Round 1Davey Grant edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control1:03

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 2Davey Grant edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:26

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 3Damian Stasiak edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 84

Sig Strikes

10 / 39

37%

Sig Str %

26%

44 / 93

Total Strikes

18 / 47

2 / 2

TDs

4 / 9

100%

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:29

Ctrl Time

4:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Damian Stasiak	3 / 10	8 / 15	1 / 2	0
1	Davey Grant	7 / 20	11 / 24	2 / 2	0
2	Damian Stasiak	5 / 21	8 / 24	2 / 4	0
2	Davey Grant	26 / 53	28 / 55	0 / 0	0
3	Damian Stasiak	2 / 8	2 / 8	1 / 3	1
3	Davey Grant	3 / 11	5 / 14	0 / 0	0

Davey Grant

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights16

Damian Stasiak

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6