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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Alptekin Ozkilic won · S-DEC R3
Elo1353
Elo1355
Alptekin Ozkilic

Darren UyenoyamavsAlptekin OzkilicUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, December 14, 2013Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Alptekin Ozkilic won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Darren Uyenoyama wins(72.1%)

Actual result: Alptekin Ozkilic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Uyenoyama at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alptekin Ozkilic enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Alptekin Ozkilic has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Darren Uyenoyama
Red Corner
VS
Alptekin Ozkilic
Blue Corner
+210
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
1353
Elo
1355
46
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'5"
165.1 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Uyenoyama
oldest →
W
vs Norifumi Yamamoto · Nov 11
W
SUBvs Phil Harris · Oct 12
L
KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Apr 13
latest
Alptekin OzkilicL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Louis Smolka · Jan 14
L
KOvs John Lineker · Jul 14
L
KOvs Ben Nguyen · May 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren UyenoyamaMetricAlptekin Ozkilic
1.34
Strikes / min
3.81
2.21
Strikes absorbed / min
5.72
66%
Strike defense
59%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
4.21
35%
Takedown defense
75%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.87Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap-1.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1515 vs 1500Strikes11.0 vs —Takedowns0.7 vs —Sub Atts1.00 vs —Form-0.1 vs 0.0
Darren UyenoyamaAlptekin Ozkilic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Darren Uyenoyama(4 fights)Alptekin Ozkilic(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -2.0|Blue +2.0
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -49.2|Blue +49.2
Grappler Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren UyenoyamaTargetAlptekin Ozkilic

By target zone

17
35% acc · 52%
Head
14
15% acc · 52%
8
62% acc · 24%
Body
5
33% acc · 19%
8
89% acc · 24%
Leg
8
89% acc · 30%

By position

25
40% acc · 76%
Distance
22
23% acc · 81%
3
100% acc · 9%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 7%
5
100% acc · 15%
Ground
3
19% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Darren Uyenoyama rounds
1
even
1
Alptekin Ozkilic rounds
Round 1Darren Uyenoyama edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control1:12
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:51Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:26Control
Round 3Alptekin Ozkilic edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:04Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
33 / 71
Sig Strikes
27 / 116
46%
Sig Str %
21%
50 / 92
Total Strikes
44 / 141
2 / 10
TDs
3 / 3
16.7%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:12
Ctrl Time
6:21

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alptekin Ozkilic4 / 1711 / 271 / 10
1Darren Uyenoyama6 / 1310 / 172 / 40
2Alptekin Ozkilic4 / 337 / 380 / 00
2Darren Uyenoyama9 / 2019 / 330 / 50
3Alptekin Ozkilic19 / 6626 / 762 / 20
3Darren Uyenoyama18 / 3821 / 420 / 10

Darren Uyenoyama

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights4

Alptekin Ozkilic

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights4