← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

5 Rounds

Jorge Masvidal won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1443

Elo1456

Darren TillvsJorge MasvidalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 16, 2019London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Jorge Masvidal won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:05

Model Prediction: Darren Till wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Till at -225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Darren Till enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Darren Till (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Darren Till

Red Corner

Jorge Masvidal

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1443

Elo

1456

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren TillL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 18

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 19

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 20

SUBvs Derek Brunson · Sep 21

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Dec 22

latest

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren TillMetricJorge Masvidal

2.30

Strikes / min

4.05

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

56%

Strike defense

64%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

1.38

69%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.01Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren TillJorge Masvidal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Till(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.8|Blue +12.8

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -308.0|Blue +308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren TillTargetJorge Masvidal

By target zone

44% acc · 81%

Head

35% acc · 51%

100% acc · 14%

Body

83% acc · 29%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

78% acc · 20%

By position

51% acc · 95%

Distance

48% acc · 89%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 9%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Till rounds

even

Jorge Masvidal rounds

Round 1Darren Till edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:51

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:27Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 43

Sig Strikes

35 / 72

49%

Sig Str %

48%

22 / 44

Total Strikes

41 / 79

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jorge Masvidal	19 / 39	24 / 45	0 / 1
1	Darren Till	13 / 27	14 / 28	1 / 1
2	Jorge Masvidal	16 / 33	17 / 34	1 / 1
2	Darren Till	8 / 16	8 / 16	0 / 0

Darren Till

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22