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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Dricus Du Plessis won · SUB R3

Elo1443

Elo1542

Dricus Du Plessis editorial illustration

Darren TillvsDricus Du PlessisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, December 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dricus Du Plessis won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:43

Model Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis wins(87.5%)

Actual result: Dricus Du Plessis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dricus Du Plessis at -195 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Darren Till has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dricus Du Plessis (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Darren Till

Red Corner

Dricus Du Plessis

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-195

(66%)

1443

Elo

1542

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren TillL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 18

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 19

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 19

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 20

SUBvs Derek Brunson · Sep 21

latest

Dricus Du Plessis

oldest →

vs Sean Strickland · Jan 24

SUBvs Israel Adesanya · Aug 24

vs Sean Strickland · Feb 25

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Aug 25

DECvs Kamaru Usman · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren TillMetricDricus Du Plessis

2.30

Strikes / min

5.18

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

56%

Strike defense

52%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

2.22

69%

Takedown defense

34%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.01Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren TillDricus Du Plessis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Till(10 fights)Dricus Du Plessis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -98.5|Blue +98.5

Recent Form

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +301.0|Blue -301.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren TillTargetDricus Du Plessis

By target zone

46% acc · 74%

Head

56% acc · 80%

67% acc · 17%

Body

57% acc · 5%

75% acc · 9%

Leg

76% acc · 15%

By position

48% acc · 83%

Distance

47% acc · 33%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

63% acc · 29%

56% acc · 14%

Ground

69% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Till rounds

even

Dricus Du Plessis rounds

Round 1Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:23

60Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:56Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 3Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 70

Sig Strikes

86 / 147

49.3%

Sig Str %

50.7%

58 / 94

Total Strikes

117 / 197

1 / 1

TDs

6 / 6

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

5:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dricus Du Plessis	60 / 85	82 / 126	3 / 3	1
1	Darren Till	6 / 12	9 / 15	1 / 1	0
2	Dricus Du Plessis	10 / 28	19 / 37	2 / 2	1
2	Darren Till	18 / 33	38 / 54	0 / 0	0
3	Dricus Du Plessis	16 / 34	16 / 34	1 / 1	1
3	Darren Till	11 / 25	11 / 25	0 / 0	0

Darren Till

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11

Dricus Du Plessis

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights11