Middleweight

3 Rounds

Karl Roberson won · SUB R1

Elo1407

Elo1429

Darren StewartvsKarl RobersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Saturday, November 11, 2017Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Karl Roberson won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:41

Model Prediction: Darren Stewart wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Karl Roberson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Stewart at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Darren Stewart enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Karl Roberson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Darren Stewart has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Karl Roberson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Darren Stewart

Red Corner

Karl Roberson

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-255

(72%)

1407

Elo

1429

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren StewartL3 streak

oldest →

vs Deron Winn · Oct 19

SUBvs Maki Pitolo · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Sep 20

vs Eryk Anders · Jun 21

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Aug 21

latest

Karl RobersonL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Nov 19

SUBvs Marvin Vettori · Jun 20

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Apr 21

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Mar 22

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren StewartMetricKarl Roberson

3.05

Strikes / min

2.57

3.29

Strikes absorbed / min

2.42

48%

Strike defense

57%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

0.72

67%

Takedown defense

40%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.24evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren StewartKarl Roberson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Stewart(10 fights)Karl Roberson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.9|Blue +21.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren StewartTargetKarl Roberson

By target zone

33% acc · 50%

Head

71% acc · 71%

0% acc

Body

83% acc · 29%

38% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

22% acc · 67%

Distance

56% acc · 29%

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 53%

Ground

60% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Stewart rounds

even

Karl Roberson rounds

Round 1Karl Roberson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:34

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 20

Sig Strikes

17 / 23

30%

Sig Str %

73%

6 / 20

Total Strikes

21 / 29

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

1:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Karl Roberson	17 / 23	21 / 29	1 / 1	2
1	Darren Stewart	6 / 20	6 / 20	0 / 1	0

Darren Stewart

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights12

Karl Roberson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10