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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Francimar Barroso won · U-DEC R3

Elo1407

Elo1364

Darren StewartvsFrancimar BarrosoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · Saturday, March 18, 2017London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Francimar Barroso won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDarren Stewart: Well-roundedvsFrancimar Barroso: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Francimar Barroso wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Francimar Barroso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francimar Barroso at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Darren Stewart enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francimar Barroso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francimar Barroso has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Francimar Barroso has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Darren Stewart

Red Corner

Francimar Barroso

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1407

Elo

1364

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren StewartL3 streak

oldest →

vs Deron Winn · Oct 19

SUBvs Maki Pitolo · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Sep 20

vs Eryk Anders · Jun 21

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Aug 21

latest

Francimar BarrosoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Jimmo · May 15

vs Elvis Mutapcic · Jan 16

SUBvs Nikita Krylov · May 16

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Sep 17

vs Gian Villante · Jan 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren StewartMetricFrancimar Barroso

3.05

Strikes / min

2.77

3.29

Strikes absorbed / min

3.07

48%

Strike defense

59%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

2.22

67%

Takedown defense

83%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.24evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren StewartFrancimar Barroso

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Stewart(10 fights)Francimar Barroso(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.1|Blue -43.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +48.1|Blue -48.1

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren StewartTargetFrancimar Barroso

By target zone

28% acc · 42%

Head

31% acc · 50%

78% acc · 23%

Body

80% acc · 29%

65% acc · 35%

Leg

86% acc · 21%

By position

32% acc · 52%

Distance

41% acc · 61%

70% acc · 45%

Clinch

56% acc · 36%

33% acc · 3%

Ground

33% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Stewart rounds

even

Francimar Barroso rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:18

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:01Control

Round 2Francimar Barroso edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control2:51

8Sig. strikes

6Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Darren Stewart edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:50

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 73

Sig Strikes

28 / 62

45.3%

Sig Str %

45.7%

55 / 102

Total Strikes

46 / 82

1 / 5

TDs

7 / 12

11%

TD %

41.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:59

Ctrl Time

2:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Francimar Barroso	12 / 24	20 / 33	1 / 4
1	Darren Stewart	14 / 27	23 / 38	1 / 3
2	Francimar Barroso	8 / 15	17 / 25	6 / 6
2	Darren Stewart	6 / 11	13 / 18	0 / 1
3	Francimar Barroso	8 / 23	9 / 24	0 / 2
3	Darren Stewart	11 / 35	19 / 46	0 / 1

Darren Stewart

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights12

Francimar Barroso

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8