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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1424

Darren ElkinsvsTristan ConnellyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · Saturday, April 30, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsTristan Connelly: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Elkins at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Tristan Connelly

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1499

Elo

1424

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 21

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Tristan Connelly

oldest →

vs Michel Pereira · Sep 19

vs Pat Sabatini · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricTristan Connelly

3.40

Strikes / min

3.31

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

51%

Strike defense

50%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

0.33

56%

Takedown defense

60%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsTristan Connelly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Tristan Connelly(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +75.8|Blue -75.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -238.0|Blue +238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetTristan Connelly

By target zone

47% acc · 88%

Head

50% acc · 73%

90% acc · 12%

Body

75% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

36% acc · 51%

Distance

48% acc · 64%

85% acc · 39%

Clinch

78% acc · 32%

80% acc · 11%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Tristan Connelly rounds

Round 1Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns3

Control3:40

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control2:07

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control2:05

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 151

Sig Strikes

66 / 117

49.3%

Sig Str %

52.3%

165 / 259

Total Strikes

106 / 158

5 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

56.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:52

Ctrl Time

0:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tristan Connelly	7 / 18	26 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Darren Elkins	19 / 39	55 / 84	3 / 3	0
2	Tristan Connelly	34 / 50	37 / 53	0 / 0	0
2	Darren Elkins	28 / 56	40 / 70	1 / 5	0
3	Tristan Connelly	25 / 49	43 / 68	0 / 0	0
3	Darren Elkins	28 / 56	70 / 105	1 / 2	1

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Tristan Connelly

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3