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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Darren Elkins won · SUB R3
Elo1499
Darren Elkins
Elo1480
TJ Brown

Darren ElkinsvsTJ BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Saturday, October 14, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:23

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsTJ Brown: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Darren Elkins has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors TJ Brown (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins
Red Corner
VS
TJ Brown
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1499
Elo
1480
42
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'10"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins
oldest →
L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 21
W
vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22
L
vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22
W
vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24
L
KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25
latest
TJ Brown
oldest →
W
vs Kai Kamaka · May 21
W
vs Charles Rosa · Jan 22
L
vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Jun 22
W
SUBvs Erik Silva · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Bill Algeo · Apr 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricTJ Brown
3.40
Strikes / min
3.37
3.34
Strikes absorbed / min
2.89
51%
Strike defense
49%
2.87
TDs / 15 min
3.41
56%
Takedown defense
36%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1561 vs 1488Strikes3.4 vs 3.4Takedowns2.9 vs 3.4Sub Atts1.10 vs 1.30Form-0.2 vs -0.1
Darren ElkinsTJ Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Darren Elkins(10 fights)TJ Brown(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +19.0|Blue -19.0
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +133.0|Blue -133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetTJ Brown

By target zone

8
28% acc · 73%
Head
11
24% acc · 73%
3
100% acc · 27%
Body
1
50% acc · 7%
0
0% acc
Leg
3
100% acc · 20%

By position

11
34% acc · 100%
Distance
15
31% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Darren Elkins rounds
0
even
0
TJ Brown rounds
Round 1Darren Elkins edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns2
Control3:32
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:37Control
Round 2Darren Elkins edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns3
Control2:49
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:44Control
Round 3Darren Elkins edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control1:48
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
11 / 33
Sig Strikes
15 / 50
31.3%
Sig Str %
28.7%
95 / 146
Total Strikes
45 / 86
5 / 8
TDs
2 / 2
53.3%
TD %
100%
2
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
1
8:09
Ctrl Time
1:29

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1TJ Brown4 / 1311 / 251 / 10
1Darren Elkins2 / 1153 / 802 / 21
2TJ Brown9 / 2932 / 531 / 10
2Darren Elkins7 / 1628 / 433 / 50
3TJ Brown2 / 82 / 80 / 00
3Darren Elkins2 / 614 / 230 / 11

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights30

TJ Brown

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights8