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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Hall won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1494

Darren ElkinsvsRyan HallUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · Saturday, July 13, 2019Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Hall won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Ryan Hall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Elkins at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Hall has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Darren Elkins has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Ryan Hall

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1499

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Ryan Hall

oldest →

vs Artem Lobov · Dec 15

vs Gray Maynard · Dec 16

SUBvs BJ Penn · Dec 18

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jul 21

vs Darrick Minner · Dec 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricRyan Hall

3.40

Strikes / min

2.38

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

1.33

51%

Strike defense

65%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

0.22

56%

Takedown defense

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

2.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsRyan Hall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Ryan Hall(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.0|Blue -5.0

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetRyan Hall

By target zone

10% acc · 28%

Head

32% acc · 42%

55% acc · 38%

Body

48% acc · 36%

43% acc · 34%

Leg

89% acc · 22%

By position

19% acc · 55%

Distance

44% acc · 94%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

31% acc · 41%

Ground

50% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Ryan Hall rounds

Round 1Ryan Hall edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:54

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Ryan Hall edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:30

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Ryan Hall edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:25

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 126

Sig Strikes

36 / 83

22.7%

Sig Str %

44.3%

31 / 128

Total Strikes

40 / 93

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:49

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Hall	12 / 24	14 / 29	0 / 0	1
1	Darren Elkins	9 / 38	9 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Ryan Hall	11 / 23	12 / 26	0 / 1	0
2	Darren Elkins	11 / 44	13 / 46	0 / 0	0
3	Ryan Hall	13 / 36	14 / 38	0 / 0	0
3	Darren Elkins	9 / 44	9 / 44	0 / 0	0

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Ryan Hall

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6